Written by Justin Kuepper. Updated by TraderHQ Staff.
Sentiment Indicators: Reading the Market’s Mood
Markets are driven by two forces: fundamentals and emotions. While long-term investors focus on valuations and growth, short-term price movements often reflect crowd psychology—fear, greed, euphoria, and panic.
Sentiment indicators quantify these emotional extremes, helping traders identify when markets may be overextended and ripe for reversal.
Why Sentiment Matters
Sentiment indicators work on a contrarian principle: when everyone is bullish, there are few buyers left. When everyone is bearish, sellers are exhausted. Extreme readings often precede market turning points.
Key insight: Sentiment indicators don’t predict timing—they identify conditions where reversals become more likely.
Major Sentiment Indicators
Put-Call Ratio
The put-call ratio measures options market positioning:
Calculation: Total Put Volume / Total Call Volume
Interpretation:
| Ratio | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Below 0.7 | Bullish sentiment (potentially too bullish) |
| 0.7 - 1.0 | Neutral zone |
| Above 1.0 | Bearish sentiment (potentially too bearish) |
Contrarian signals:
- Extremely low readings (under 0.5) suggest complacency—potential for decline
- Extremely high readings (above 1.2) suggest fear—potential for rally
Where to find it: CBOE publishes daily equity, index, and total put-call ratios.
AAII Sentiment Survey
The American Association of Individual Investors polls members weekly on their six-month market outlook.
Categories:
- Bullish %
- Bearish %
- Neutral %
Historical averages:
- Bullish: ~38%
- Bearish: ~30%
- Neutral: ~32%
Contrarian signals:
- Bullish readings above 50% often precede pullbacks
- Bearish readings above 50% often precede rallies
- The bull-bear spread (bullish% minus bearish%) at extremes is particularly useful
Where to find it: AAII.com publishes weekly results with historical data back to 1987.
NAAIM Exposure Index
The National Association of Active Investment Managers reports member equity exposure weekly.
Scale: 0 to 200
- 100 = fully invested
- 0 = fully in cash
- 200 = leveraged long
- Negative = net short
Interpretation:
- Readings above 100 suggest aggressive positioning
- Readings below 50 suggest defensive positioning
- Extreme readings in either direction can signal turning points
CNN Fear & Greed Index
A composite of seven market indicators:
- Stock price momentum (S&P 500 vs. 125-day MA)
- Stock price strength (52-week highs vs. lows)
- Stock price breadth (advancing vs. declining volume)
- Put-call ratio
- Junk bond demand (yield spread)
- Market volatility (VIX)
- Safe-haven demand (stock vs. bond returns)
Scale: 0 (Extreme Fear) to 100 (Extreme Greed)
| Reading | Zone |
|---|---|
| 0-25 | Extreme Fear |
| 25-45 | Fear |
| 45-55 | Neutral |
| 55-75 | Greed |
| 75-100 | Extreme Greed |
Where to find it: CNN Business Money section, updated daily.
VIX (Volatility Index)
The “fear gauge” measures expected S&P 500 volatility over the next 30 days.
Typical ranges:
| VIX Level | Market Condition |
|---|---|
| Below 12 | Extreme complacency |
| 12-20 | Normal conditions |
| 20-30 | Elevated concern |
| Above 30 | High fear |
| Above 40 | Panic/crisis |
Contrarian application:
- VIX spikes above 30-35 often mark short-term bottoms
- Sustained low VIX (below 12) can precede corrections
- VIX futures curve (contango vs. backwardation) provides additional signals
Using Sentiment in Trading
As a Filter, Not a Trigger
Sentiment extremes create conditions for reversals but don’t trigger trades directly:
- Identify sentiment extreme
- Wait for price confirmation (reversal pattern, support/resistance break)
- Enter with defined risk
- Don’t fight the trend based solely on sentiment
Combining Multiple Indicators
No single indicator is reliable. Look for confirmation:
- Put-call ratio extreme + AAII extreme + VIX spike = stronger signal
- Divergences between indicators suggest mixed picture
Timeframe Considerations
- Short-term (days to weeks): Put-call ratio, VIX
- Medium-term (weeks to months): AAII, NAAIM, Fear & Greed
- Long-term positioning: Extreme AAII readings, multi-month sentiment trends
Common Mistakes
Mistake 1: Trading Against Trends
Extreme sentiment can persist longer than expected. A market can remain “too bullish” while continuing higher.
Solution: Use sentiment for awareness, not immediate action. Wait for price confirmation.
Mistake 2: Cherry-Picking Indicators
Traders often highlight the indicator supporting their view while ignoring contradictory ones.
Solution: Create a consistent framework using multiple indicators.
Mistake 3: Ignoring Context
A put-call ratio of 1.2 during a correction has different implications than the same reading during a sustained uptrend.
Solution: Consider the market environment when interpreting readings.
Building a Sentiment Dashboard
Track these regularly:
- Daily: Put-call ratio, VIX
- Weekly: AAII survey, Fear & Greed Index
- Monthly: NAAIM, longer-term trend analysis
Note extreme readings and watch for confirmation before acting.
To implement these indicators effectively, you’ll need quality charting and analysis tools. Explore our guide to the best stock analysis websites for platforms that support sentiment indicator tracking.
Key Takeaways
Sentiment indicators help identify emotional extremes in markets:
- Extreme bullishness suggests potential for pullback
- Extreme bearishness suggests potential for rally
- Use multiple indicators for confirmation
- Wait for price confirmation before trading against sentiment
- Sentiment shows conditions, not timing
These tools work best as part of a broader analytical framework, helping you understand the psychological backdrop against which technical and fundamental factors play out.
Monitor sentiment regularly, but remember: the crowd can be right for extended periods. Patience and confirmation are essential when trading against prevailing sentiment.