You’ve probably heard that Rule Breakers has returned 348% versus the S&P 500’s 166%. That sounds impressive until you learn something the marketing doesn’t emphasize: if you’d bought every Rule Breakers pick and sold after one year, your win rate would be 60%. Barely better than a coin flip.
But here’s what challenges everything you think you know about stock picking: hold those same positions for 10+ years, and the win rate jumps to 96%.
That’s not a typo. The same picks. The same service. Radically different outcomes based purely on how long you hold. This review is about understanding why that happens—and whether you’re the type of investor who can actually capture those 21-year returns.
The Verdict: Rule Breakers Is Worth It—With a Massive Caveat
Rating: 4.5/5
Rule Breakers delivers on its promise of market-beating returns through aggressive growth investing. The +348% return versus the S&P 500’s +166% is real and verifiable across 382 positions dating back to 2004.
But this service only works if you understand asymmetric math. Winners average +233%. Losers average -37%. That 6:1 ratio means you don’t need to be right most of the time—you need to stay invested long enough for the winners to compound while the losers hit their floor.
Best for: Aggressive investors with $50,000+ portfolios, genuine 5+ year time horizons, and the stomach for 50%+ drawdowns on individual positions.
Not for: Anyone who’d sell a position down 40%, income seekers, or investors who want quick validation of their picks.
The 21-Year Track Record: What the Numbers Actually Show
Let’s challenge your first assumption: that a stock picking service needs to be right most of the time to be valuable.
Rule Breakers’ historical win rate is 72%. That means roughly 1 in 4 picks loses money. Some lose catastrophically—positions down 80-90% that the service still marks as “BUY.”
So how does the service still beat the market by 2x?
The Asymmetric Math of Rule Breakers
| Metric | Value | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| Winners Average Return | +233% | A winner more than triples your money |
| Losers Average Return | -37% | A loser costs you roughly a third |
| Winner/Loser Ratio | 6:1 | One winner erases six losers |
| Picks That Doubled | 32.7% | Nearly 1 in 3 becomes a 2-bagger |
| Picks That 5x’d | 13.6% | More than 1 in 10 becomes a 5-bagger |
| Picks That 10x’d | 2.6% | The rare home runs that define returns |
This is why selling winners “to lock in gains” destroys the strategy. If you’d sold every Rule Breakers winner at +100%, you’d forfeit 72.5% of the service’s total returns. The 10-baggers and 20-baggers are where the real wealth is built.
Performance by Holding Period
This table should change how you think about stock picking services:
| Holding Period | Win Rate | Average Return | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 1 Year | 60% | 7.5% | Barely better than random chance |
| 1-3 Years | 68% | 30% | The strategy starts working |
| 5-10 Years | 74% | 166% | Compounding accelerates |
| 10+ Years | 96% | 425% | Life-changing wealth territory |
Read that again. The same picks that look like coin flips in year one become near-certainties over a decade. This isn’t luck—it’s how disruptive innovation actually plays out. The market consistently underestimates how long it takes for genuine innovators to compound.
Rule Breakers vs S&P 500: Cumulative Performance
| Period | Rule Breakers | S&P 500 | Outperformance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Since 2004 (21 years) | +348% | +166% | +182 percentage points |
| Annualized Return | ~7.5% | ~4.8% | ~2.7% per year |
| $10,000 Investment | ~$44,800 | ~$26,600 | +$18,200 difference |
That $18,200 difference on a $10,000 investment is the cost of not having a systematic approach to growth investing. But it required holding through multiple 40%+ drawdowns.
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What You Actually Get With Rule Breakers
Here’s your second assumption to challenge: Rule Breakers is not a standalone service anymore.
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You can’t buy Rule Breakers by itself. It’s bundled into Motley Fool Epic at $299/year (promotional) or $499/year (regular), which includes:
- Rule Breakers — Aggressive growth picks (this service)
- Stock Advisor — Balanced growth picks
- Hidden Gems — Small-cap opportunities
- Dividend Investor — Income-focused selections
What Rule Breakers Specifically Delivers:
| Feature | Details |
|---|---|
| Monthly Picks | 2 new recommendations |
| Active Positions | 382 tracked stocks |
| Research Platform | Fool IQ+ with Moneyball scoring |
| Quant Projections | 5-year return estimates with drawdown warnings |
| Risk Classifications | Aggressive, Moderate, or Cautious ratings |
| Community | Discussion boards for each pick |
The Research Depth
Every Rule Breakers pick includes:
- Quant: 5Y Score — Conviction rating for 5-year outperformance
- Estimated Return Range — e.g., “12% to 45% annually”
- Maximum Drawdown Estimate — e.g., “-53% expected at some point”
- Moneyball Scoring — Quality, Growth, Safety, Valuation, Market Buzz
When a stock shows “-53% estimated max drawdown” with an “Aggressive” classification, that’s not a bug—it’s a feature. You know exactly what you’re signing up for.
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The David Gardner Question
Third assumption to challenge: David Gardner, the legendary co-founder who created Rule Breakers, no longer picks the stocks.
David stepped back from stock selection in May 2021. He now hosts the Rule Breaker Investing podcast and focuses on education and thought leadership. The analyst team—led by CIO Andy Cross, Tim Beyers, and others—makes all recommendations using David’s criteria.
What This Means for You:
If you’re subscribing because you want David Gardner’s personal picks, that’s not what you’re getting. You’re getting a systematic application of his philosophy by trained analysts.
Is that worse? Not necessarily. The criteria are codified. The process is documented. And frankly, systematic application of proven criteria often outperforms individual genius over time.
But you should know what you’re buying.
The 2020-2021 Vintage: The Honest Assessment
Fourth assumption to challenge: past performance doesn’t mean recent performance.
The 2020-2021 picks—made during the growth stock euphoria—have been brutal:
| Metric | 2020-2021 Vintage | Historical Average |
|---|---|---|
| Win Rate | 35-39% | 72% |
| Positions Down 70%+ | Multiple | Rare historically |
| Current Status | Many still marked “BUY” | N/A |
This isn’t hidden. If you log into Rule Breakers today, you’ll see positions down 80-90% that the service still recommends holding. The philosophy is consistent: these are long-term holds, and selling during drawdowns locks in losses.
Recent Pick Performance (Mixed Results):
| Pick | Performance Since Recommendation |
|---|---|
| TransMedics | +100% |
| BridgeBio | +85% |
| +25% | |
| Grab Holdings | -22% |
| Topicus | -32% |
The 2020-2021 vintage is the real test of the Rule Breakers philosophy. Will those beaten-down positions recover over the next decade? The 21-year track record suggests many will. But right now, they’re underwater—and that’s the reality any new subscriber should understand.
Pricing and Value: The Math
Current Pricing:
| Tier | Price | What’s Included |
|---|---|---|
| Epic (Promo) | $299/year | Rule Breakers + Stock Advisor + Hidden Gems + Dividend Investor |
| Epic (Regular) | $499/year | Same as above |
| Epic Plus | $1,999/year | Adds daily Moneyball, options strategies, more scorecards |
The Breakeven Calculation:
At $299/year, you’re paying $5.75/week for access to four investment services. If you invest $5,000 in a single Rule Breakers pick that outperforms the S&P 500 by 10%, that’s $500 in excess returns—covering nearly two years of the service.
But the real math is asymmetric. One 5-bagger on a $5,000 position is $25,000 in gains. That’s 83 years of subscription fees from a single pick.
The Bundle Question:
Can you only want Rule Breakers? Yes. Is the bundle actually a problem? No.
Having access to Stock Advisor (balanced growth), Hidden Gems (small caps), and Dividend Investor (income) alongside Rule Breakers gives you diversification across strategies. When growth is out of favor, dividend stocks might carry you. When small caps rally, Hidden Gems shines.
The bundle is a feature, not a bug.
Refund Policy: 30-day money-back guarantee. If you don’t like what you see, you get a full refund.
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The Trade-Offs: Pros and Cons
What Rule Breakers Does Well:
| Strength | Why It Matters |
|---|---|
| 21-year verifiable track record | Every pick, every return, every entry date visible |
| Asymmetric math (6:1 ratio) | You don’t need to be right most of the time |
| Sophisticated research platform | Quant projections, drawdown estimates, risk classifications |
| Bundle value | Four services for $299/year |
| Transparency | They show the losers, not just the winners |
What Rule Breakers Struggles With:
| Limitation | The Reality |
|---|---|
| Higher volatility than Stock Advisor | Expect 50%+ drawdowns on individual positions |
| 2020-2021 vintage pain | 35-39% win rates, positions down 70-90% |
| No standalone option | Must buy full Epic bundle |
| David Gardner transition | Analyst team picks stocks since May 2021 |
| 5+ year holding period required | First-year win rate is only 60% |
| Constant upsells | Every article pitches Epic Plus at $1,999/year |
Who Should (and Shouldn’t) Use Rule Breakers
Rule Breakers Is Built For:
- Aggressive growth investors who want higher potential returns and accept higher volatility
- Patient investors with genuine 5+ year time horizons (not “I think I can hold that long”)
- Portfolios of $50,000+ to diversify across 25+ positions
- Investors who understand asymmetric math — you’re betting on the winners to overwhelm the losers
- Those who want research depth — not just “buy this,” but why and with what risk
Don’t Subscribe If:
- You can’t stomach 50%+ position losses. Some Rule Breakers picks are down 80-90% and still marked “BUY.” If that would keep you up at night, this isn’t your service.
- You want income. Rule Breakers focuses on growth, not dividends. Try Dividend Investor instead.
- You need validation in year one. The first-year win rate is 60%. If you’ll judge the service after 12 months, you’ll likely be disappointed.
- You only want Rule Breakers. There’s no standalone option—you must buy the full Epic bundle.
- You’d have sold Netflix when it dropped 80% in 2022. The service only works for investors who can follow the process when it hurts.
Best Alternatives to Rule Breakers
| Service | Best For | Price | Key Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Advisor | Balanced growth with lower volatility | $199/year standalone | Less aggressive, more consistent |
| Alpha Picks | Quant-driven stock selection | $449/year | Algorithm-based, not analyst-driven |
| Morningstar Investor | Research-focused, DIY investors | $249/year | Analysis tools, not stock picks |
| S&P 500 Index Fund | Passive investors | ~0.03% expense ratio | Market returns, no stock selection |
The Honest Comparison:
Stock Advisor has returned +982% since 2002—significantly better than Rule Breakers’ +348%. But Stock Advisor is less volatile, more balanced, and requires less stomach for drawdowns. If you want growth exposure but aren’t sure you can handle Rule Breakers’ volatility, Stock Advisor is the safer choice.
If you want even more aggressive growth and can handle even more volatility, Rule Breakers is the tool built for that job.
Final Verdict: Is Rule Breakers Worth It?
Rule Breakers has delivered +348% returns versus the S&P 500’s +166% over 21 years. That’s not marketing—it’s 382 positions with verifiable entry dates and returns.
But those returns required:
- Holding through multiple 50%+ drawdowns
- Watching 28% of picks lose money (some catastrophically)
- Ignoring the urge to sell winners at +100%
- Trusting the process for 5+ years minimum
The question isn’t whether Rule Breakers works. The track record proves it does.
The question is whether you can work Rule Breakers. Can you hold a position down 60% because the 21-year data says it might recover? Can you resist selling a 3-bagger because the math says it might become a 10-bagger?
If yes, Rule Breakers offers a systematic approach to aggressive growth investing with a two-decade track record of beating the market.
If no, there’s no shame in that. Stock Advisor offers similar quality with less volatility. Index funds offer market returns with zero stress.
But if you’re the investor who can hold through the pain, Rule Breakers is built for you.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Motley Fool Rule Breakers worth the money?
Rule Breakers is worth it for aggressive investors with 5+ year time horizons who understand asymmetric returns. The service has returned +348% versus the S&P 500’s +166% over 21 years, but the first-year win rate is only 60%. The value materializes over time—at 10+ years, the win rate jumps to 96%. At $299/year via Epic (which includes three other services), the math works if you can hold through volatility.
What are the best alternatives to Rule Breakers?
Stock Advisor ($199/year) offers similar quality with less volatility and better absolute returns (+982% since 2002). Alpha Picks ($449/year) provides quant-driven selections for investors who prefer algorithmic approaches. Morningstar Investor ($249/year) suits DIY investors who want research tools rather than specific picks. An S&P 500 index fund is the best choice for passive investors who don’t want to manage individual positions.
Rule Breakers vs Stock Advisor: Which is better?
Stock Advisor has better absolute returns (+982% vs +348%) and lower volatility. Rule Breakers has higher potential returns but requires more stomach for drawdowns. Choose Stock Advisor if you want balanced growth with less stress. Choose Rule Breakers if you’re comfortable with aggressive positions and 50%+ drawdowns on individual stocks. Both are included in Epic ($299/year), so you don’t have to choose.
How do I cancel Motley Fool Rule Breakers?
Rule Breakers is bundled into Motley Fool Epic. To cancel, log into your Fool account, go to “My Account” > “Membership,” and select “Cancel Membership.” You can also contact customer service at 1-888-665-3665. The 30-day money-back guarantee applies to new members—cancel within 30 days for a full refund.
Does David Gardner still pick stocks for Rule Breakers?
No. David Gardner stepped back from stock selection in May 2021. He now hosts the Rule Breaker Investing podcast and focuses on education. The analyst team—led by CIO Andy Cross and analysts like Tim Beyers—makes all recommendations using David’s criteria. The philosophy is the same; the stock picker has changed.
What is Rule Breakers’ win rate?
Rule Breakers’ historical win rate is 72%, meaning roughly 28% of picks lose money. However, win rate varies dramatically by holding period: 60% at one year, 68% at 1-3 years, 74% at 5-10 years, and 96% at 10+ years. The strategy relies on asymmetric returns—winners average +233% while losers average -37%—so you don’t need to be right most of the time.