Alpha Picks wins for most investors. The +264% verified return since July 2022 (vs S&P 500’s +79%) isn’t marketing—it’s documented across 88 positions and verified by S&P Global using GIPS standards. Mindful Trader’s 141% median annual return sounds impressive, but it’s back-tested data, not live trading results.
But here’s the real question: Do you want to be an investor or a trader?
Alpha Picks gives you 2 stock picks per month and asks you to hold for 1-3 years. Mindful Trader sends 1-3 trade alerts per day and expects you to act near market open. Same “quant” label, completely different lifestyles.
If you have the patience for long-term investing and want a verified track record, Alpha Picks is the clear choice. If you enjoy active trading and want monthly billing flexibility, Mindful Trader might suit your style—just understand you’re betting on hypothetical returns.
Quick Comparison: Alpha Picks vs Mindful Trader
| Dimension | Alpha Picks | Mindful Trader | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Track Record | +264% since July 2022 (live, verified) | 141% median annual (back-tested) | Alpha Picks |
| Verification | S&P Global (GIPS standards) | Self-reported | Alpha Picks |
| Annual Cost | $449-499/year | $564/year ($47/mo) | Alpha Picks |
| Billing Flexibility | Annual only, no refunds | Monthly, cancel anytime | Mindful Trader |
| Holding Period | 1-3 years optimal | ~1 week average | Depends on style |
| Time Commitment | 2 picks/month (set-and-forget) | 1-3 picks/day (active) | Alpha Picks |
| Asset Types | Stocks only | Stocks + Options | Mindful Trader |
| Win Rate | 68% (78% at 1-3 years) | Not disclosed (live) | Alpha Picks |
| Overall Winner | — | — | Alpha Picks |
Alpha Picks: The Verified Quant System
Alpha Picks is Seeking Alpha’s flagship stock-picking service—a pure quantitative system with no human discretion. The algorithm evaluates stocks across five factors: Value, Growth, Profitability, Momentum, and EPS Revisions. When a stock scores high enough, it gets recommended. When the score drops, it gets sold.
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The philosophy is simple: trust the data, not the narratives.
The Numbers That Matter
Since launching in July 2022, Alpha Picks has delivered:
- +264% total return vs S&P 500’s +79%
- 68% win rate across 88 positions
- 78% win rate for positions held 1-3 years
- Three ten-baggers: +1,571%, +1,167%, +969%
The performance isn’t self-reported—it’s calculated by S&P Global using GIPS (Global Investment Performance Standards). Every position is visible: entry date, exit date, and return. Winners and losers.
The Time Curve Is Everything
Here’s what separates Alpha Picks from day-trading services:
| Holding Period | Win Rate | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|
| Under 1 year | 54% | 5% |
| 1-3 years | 78% | 119% |
That’s a 23x difference in returns based purely on holding period. The system is designed for patience. If you’re checking your portfolio daily and panicking at drawdowns, you’ll underperform the strategy.
Strengths
- Verified track record — Not claims, not back-tests, actual live trading results verified by a third party
- Complete transparency — Every position visible with full details
- Minimal time commitment — 2 picks per month, review quarterly
- Re-recommendations work — When the model picks a stock twice, average returns jump from 44% to 216%
- Lower annual cost — $449-499/year vs Mindful Trader’s $564
Limitations
- No refunds — Annual billing only, no trial period
- Black-box methodology — You know the five factors but not the weightings
- Patience required — The system underperforms in year one (54% win rate, 5% average return)
- No position sizing guidance — Equal-weight recommendations only
- Shorter track record — 2.5 years vs decades for some competitors
Best For
Investors with 1-3+ year horizons who trust algorithms over opinions. Ideal portfolio size: $25,000+ to deploy across 44 positions meaningfully. You want verified results, not promises.
For the complete breakdown of Alpha Picks’ methodology, performance, and user experience, see our Alpha Picks review.
Mindful Trader: The Swing Trading Algorithm
Mindful Trader takes a completely different approach. Founded in November 2020 by Eric Ferguson (Stanford graduate, perfect math SAT), the service provides real-time swing trade alerts based on algorithmic pattern recognition.
Eric spent over $200,000 and four years developing these strategies. When he makes a trade in his personal account, subscribers get an alert. Trades typically last about one week.
The Back-Tested Numbers
Mindful Trader’s website prominently features:
- 141% median annual return (Main Account)
- 24% average annual drawdown
- 40% maximum drawdown
Critical caveat: These are back-tested results from 20 years of historical data. They’re hypothetical—not actual live trading performance. The website extensively disclaims this, but the distinction matters.
The service has been live since November 2020 (4+ years), but live trading performance isn’t disclosed with the same specificity as the back-test data.
How It Works
Every trade includes:
- Entry price
- Profit target
- Stop-loss level
Trades focus on large-cap stocks ($10B+ market cap) and sometimes options. Alerts typically come near market open (6:30am Pacific), and you’re expected to act quickly.
The methodology is pure technical analysis—no fundamental or news-based analysis. The algorithm identifies specific price patterns and trends.
Strengths
- Monthly billing flexibility — $47/month, cancel anytime
- Skin in the game — Founder trades his own picks
- Defined risk parameters — Every trade has a stop-loss
- Educational content — Tutorials to learn the strategies
- No Pattern Day Trader requirement — Trades average 1 week
Limitations
- Back-tested results only — Live trading performance not disclosed
- Active time commitment — 1-3 alerts per day, trade at market open
- Expects significant drawdowns — 20-40% is normal
- Requires options capability — Full strategy needs both stocks and options
- U.S. residents only — Geographic restriction
- Not a registered investment advisor — Founder is an educator, not a fiduciary
Best For
Active traders who enjoy the process of swing trading. You can trade near market open (6:30am Pacific), you’re comfortable with 20-40% drawdowns, and you want the flexibility to cancel monthly.
For the full analysis of Mindful Trader’s strategy, track record, and user experience, see our Mindful Trader review.
The Real Difference: Investor vs Trader
These services aren’t competing for the same person. They represent fundamentally different approaches to the market.
Time Horizon
| Alpha Picks | Mindful Trader |
|---|---|
| 1-3 years optimal | ~1 week average |
| 2 picks per month | 1-3 picks per day |
| Patience is the edge | Speed is the edge |
Alpha Picks asks you to buy and hold. Mindful Trader asks you to buy, set a stop-loss, and exit when the target hits—or when the stop triggers.
Daily Commitment
| Alpha Picks | Mindful Trader |
|---|---|
| Review portfolio quarterly | Check alerts daily |
| No action required most days | Trade near market open |
| 30 minutes per month | 30+ minutes per day |
If you have a full-time job and can’t monitor markets at 6:30am Pacific, Mindful Trader will frustrate you. Alpha Picks works for people who want to set and forget.
Track Record Verification
This is the biggest difference:
| Alpha Picks | Mindful Trader |
|---|---|
| Live trading since July 2022 | Live trading since November 2020 |
| Verified by S&P Global (GIPS) | Self-reported |
| Every position documented | Back-test data emphasized |
| +264% documented | 141% annual (hypothetical) |
Alpha Picks shows you the receipts. Mindful Trader shows you what the algorithm would have done over 20 years of historical data. Both are valid approaches, but one has proof and the other has projections.
Risk Management
| Alpha Picks | Mindful Trader |
|---|---|
| Let winners run | Preset profit targets |
| No stop-losses | Stop-loss on every trade |
| Accept 30-50% drawdowns | Expect 20-40% drawdowns |
| Systematic exits based on model | Discipline-based exits |
Alpha Picks trusts the model to identify when to sell. Mindful Trader trusts you to follow the stop-losses. Both require discipline—just different kinds.
How to Decide
Choose Alpha Picks if:
- You’re investing for 1-3+ years and won’t need the money
- You want a verified track record, not back-tested projections
- You prefer set-and-forget over active trading
- You trust algorithms and don’t need to understand the “why”
- You can commit $449-499 annually without a refund option
Choose Mindful Trader if:
- You enjoy active trading and the daily engagement
- You want monthly billing flexibility ($47/month, cancel anytime)
- You can trade near market open (6:30am Pacific)
- You’re comfortable with 20-40% account drawdowns
- You want to trade both stocks and options
- You prefer defined stop-losses over open-ended positions
Either Works if:
- You’ll actually follow the recommendations (the biggest variable is you)
- You understand that drawdowns are normal in any strategy
- You’re adding this as one input, not your entire strategy
The Tiebreaker
Ask yourself: “Do I want to be an investor or a trader?”
If you want to build wealth over years with minimal daily involvement, choose Alpha Picks. If you want to actively trade, learn technical patterns, and engage with the market daily, choose Mindful Trader.
There’s no wrong answer—just the wrong fit for your lifestyle.
The Bottom Line
Alpha Picks wins for most investors. The verified track record (+264% vs S&P 500’s +79%), the minimal time commitment (2 picks per month), and the lower annual cost ($449-499 vs $564) make it the better choice for anyone who wants quant-driven stock selection without becoming a full-time trader.
Mindful Trader wins for active traders. If you enjoy the process of swing trading, want monthly billing flexibility, and can commit to daily engagement, it offers a structured approach with defined risk parameters. Just understand that the impressive return numbers are back-tested hypotheticals, not verified live results.
The real question isn’t which service is “better.” It’s which approach matches who you are.
If I had to recommend one for a friend who’s never used a quant service? Alpha Picks. The verified track record removes the guesswork, and the set-and-forget approach means you’ll actually use it. Most people don’t have the time or temperament for daily swing trading—and there’s nothing wrong with that.
Looking to evaluate more options? Explore all top services in our guide to the best stock advisors.
Frequently Asked Questions
Alpha Picks vs Mindful Trader: which is better?
Alpha Picks is better for most investors. It has a verified track record (+264% since July 2022 vs S&P 500’s +79%), requires minimal time commitment (2 picks per month), and costs less annually ($449-499 vs $564). Mindful Trader is better for active traders who enjoy daily engagement and want monthly billing flexibility—but its 141% annual return is back-tested, not live trading performance.
Is Alpha Picks worth it?
Yes, for patient investors who can hold 1-3 years. At $449-499/year, Alpha Picks has returned +264% since July 2022 with a 68% win rate across 88 documented positions. The performance is verified by S&P Global using GIPS standards. The catch: positions held under one year have only a 54% win rate and 5% average return—the system requires patience to work.
Is Mindful Trader worth it?
It depends on your trading style. At $47/month with cancel-anytime flexibility, Mindful Trader offers low-risk entry for active traders. The founder trades his own picks and provides clear entry/exit parameters. However, the 141% median annual return is back-tested—not verified live trading performance. If you enjoy swing trading and can commit to daily engagement, it’s worth trying. If you want verified results, look elsewhere.
Can I use both Alpha Picks and Mindful Trader?
Technically yes, but they serve completely different purposes. Alpha Picks is for long-term investing (1-3 year holds), while Mindful Trader is for short-term swing trading (~1 week holds). Running both would require separate capital allocations and different mindsets. Most investors are better served picking the approach that matches their lifestyle rather than trying to do both.
Which service has a better track record?
Alpha Picks has the better verified track record. Its +264% return since July 2022 is documented across 88 positions and verified by S&P Global using GIPS standards. Mindful Trader’s 141% median annual return comes from 20 years of back-tested data—hypothetical results, not actual live trading. Both services have been running live since 2020/2022, but only Alpha Picks publishes verified performance data.
Do I need to trade options for either service?
Alpha Picks: No. It recommends stocks only. Mindful Trader: Partially. The full strategy includes both stock and options trades. You can follow stock trades only, but you’ll miss part of the strategy. If you’re not comfortable with options, Alpha Picks is the simpler choice.