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Motley Fool Stock Advisor Review – 2016 Stock Picking Performance Review

- TraderHQ Staff

How did the 2016 Motley Fool Stock Advisor Picks Perform?

It's time to look back at the 2016 performance of the Motley Fool Stock Advisor service and analyze all the stock picks measuring short and long-term performance 4 years later.

For this review we'll analyze the performance of recommendations including the worst performers. We'll break down the performance by the 3 recomendation types to get a complete picture on the Motley Fool Stock Advisor way of investing so you can better decide if the service is right for you.

For those unfamiliar Stock Advisor has three types of recommendations which are...

  1. New Recommendations: These are high growth recommendations which they release two of them monthly. On occasion they are re-recommendations of a past pick when their conviction level is extremely high.
  2. Best Buys: These recommendations are released bi-weekly and they feature 10 timely recommendations which are believed to be the best stocks from all active recommendations current and past.
  3. Foundational Stocks: Sometimes called "Starter" stocks, these 10 stocks are released at the beginning of the year and are designed to provide maturity, stability and growth to new and established portfolios.

In general the Motley Fool recommends a portfolio construction of at least 25 stocks to have adequate diversity and the foundational stocks are meant to provide a based on which you begin purchasing new recommendations, building up over-time to a portfolio of at least 25 holdings.

Probability of Positive Returns

The Motley Fool analyzed Stock Advisor performance from March 31, 2002 – November 19, 2021, using an average portfolio from an average month during that time period to help determine the optimal number of holdings and holding period.

They found that the optimal number of stocks to hold is 25 and the optimal minimum holding period is 5 years which produced a 98.4% likelyhood of positive returns with an average return of 89.6%.

Probability of Positive Returns

So without further ado let's dive in and look at the performance of Stock Advisor in 2016.

How did the 2016 Stock Advisor Picks Perform Long-term?

Long-term Performance1 Year2 Years3 YearsTo-Date
New Recommendations28%75%131%249%
Best Buys22%56%66%158%
Foundational Stocks8%49%23%127%
Blended Average19%60%73%178%
  • New Recommendations produced a 249% cummulative to-date.
  • Best Buys produced a 158% cummulative to-date.
  • Foundational Stocks produced a 127% cummulative to-date.
  • Blended Average produced a 178% cummulative to-date.

Bundle Offer: Stock Advisor + Rule Breakers. 1 Year for $199

The Best Stock Advisor Picks of from 2016

Here are the 5 best Motley Fool Stock Advisor stock recommendations from 2016.

Best Picks from 20161 Year2 Years3 YearsTo-Date
#1 Best Pick:180%423%907%2,015%
#2 Best Pick:53%324%443%827%
#3 Best Pick:18%204%464%562%
#4 Best Pick:83%221%117%473%
#5 Best Pick:19%57%59%289%
Return: $5000 Invested ($1k Each)$3,526$12,293$19,898$41,662

The best Stock Advisor pick from 2016 produced a 2,015% return by the 4th year, making a $1000 investment worth $21,146. A $1000 investment in each of these picks would have returned you $41,662 by the fourth year.

If the best stock from 2016 continues to grow at just half this rate over the next 5 years that $1000 initial investment would grow to $31,719

That is the power of compounding returns.

That 20x return on one stock would cancel out 20 other equal weighted investments that go to zero. That is the power of asymetric risk.

You can only lose 1x the money you invested, while you can gain 5x,10x,100x or more. That's asymetric returns and the primary draw of stock picking and the value of services like the Motley Fool offers.

Click here to See the Latest Stock Advisor Picks (May 18th, 2022)

How did Stock Advisor Perform vs Rule Breakers?

While Stock Advisor performance was great, Rule Breakers out-performed in many categories.

  • Rule Breakers had...
  • 100% more 3x returns
  • 100% more 10x returns
  • 94% higher 4 year returns

Bundle Offer: Stock Advisor + Rule Breakers. 1 Year for $199

The Worst Stock Advisor Picks from 2016

Here are the 5 worst Motley Fool Stock Advisor recommendations from 2016 by worst 4 year returns.

Worst Picks of 20161 Year2 Years3 YearsTo-Date
#1 Worst Pick:-34%-33%-19%-56%
#2 Worst Pick:5%-21%-57%-48%
#3 Worst Pick:-5%-15%-8%-32%
#4 Worst Pick:7%-14%-21%-29%
#5 Worst Pick:46%-17%-20%-10%
Return: $5000 Invested ($1k Each)$5,193$3,991$3,743$3,257

The worst Stock Advisor pick from 2016 was down -56% by the 4th year, making a $1000 investment worth just $445.

A $1000 investment in each of these picks ($5000 total) yielded a loss of $3,257 by the fourth year.

Based on equal weight investing the 5 best picks returned 24x more money than the losses from the 5 worst picks in 2016.

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5 Best Picks by the Charts

#1 Best Stock Advisor Pick from 2016

5 Best Picks by the Charts

#2 Best Stock Advisor Pick from 2016

5 Best Picks by the Charts

#3 Best Stock Advisor Pick from 2016

5 Best Picks by the Charts

#4 Best Stock Advisor Pick from 2016

5 Best Picks by the Charts

#5 Best Stock Advisor Pick from 2016

5 Best Picks by the Charts

How did the 2016 Stock Advisor Picks Perform in the Short-term?

Short-term Performance3 Months6 Months9 Months1 Year
New Recommendations9%20%24%28%
Best Buys7%12%16%22%
Foundational Stocks-1%3%5%8%
Blended Average5%12%15%19%

1. As of 03-21-2022 2. One year after recommendation.

Click here to See the Latest Stock Advisor Picks (May 18th, 2022)

Stock Advisor 2016 Win Rates

Win Rates15%+ Returns
at 1 Year
50%+ Returns
at 1 Year
3x Returns3x Returns
New Recommendations78.26%34.78%17.39%4.35%
Best Buys62.41%36.88%11.35%2.13%
Foundational Stocks40.00%20.00%0.71%

How did the 2016 Stock Advisor Picks Perform in the Short-term?

  • New Recommendations had 78% of picks with 15%+ returns and 35% with 50% returns at one year. Looking at the 4 year mark 17% had 300%+ returns, % with 1000%+ and one pick with an amazing 4,256,600%return.
  • Best Buys had 62% of picks with 15%+ returns and 37% with 50% returns at one year.
  • Foundational Stocks had 40% of picks with 15%+ returns and 20% with 50%+ returns at one year.

Stock Advisor Performance Review by Sector - 2016

SectorReturn% of PicksAnnualized Return
Information Technology198%13%99%
Financials95%13%48%
Communication Services87%30%44%
Consumer Discretionary42%13%21%
Materials25%4%12%
Healthcare23%17%11%
Industrials-6%9%-3%

The top performing sectors were information technology, financials and communication services with information technology yielding the highest return of 198%

. The average sector weight was 14% with the largest sector accounting for 30% of the picks.

Performance vs. The Market (Annualized)

Annualized Returns1 Year2 Years3 Years4 Years
New Recommendations28%37%44%59%
Best Buys22%28%22%39%
Foundational Stocks8%24%8%32%
Blended Average19%30%24%44%
S&P 50012%17%7%15%
New RecommendationsStock AdvisorS&P 500Beat Market by
1 Year28%12%131%
2 Years37%17%117%
3 Years44%7%508%
Blended Average36%12%198%
Foundational StocksStock AdvisorS&P 500Beat Market by
1 Year8%12%-37%
2 Years24%17%41%
3 Years8%7%7%
Blended Average13%12%8%
Best BuysStock AdvisorS&P 500Beat Market by
1 Year22%12%86%
2 Years28%17%61%
3 Years22%7%206%
Blended Average24%12%98%

Click here to See the Latest Stock Advisor Picks (May 18th, 2022)

Conclusion

The stock picks from Motley Fool Stock Advisor in 2016 stongly outperformed the market in nearly every category. The annualized returns on the new recommendations beat the market by 508% at the 3rd year and the Best Buys beat the market by 206% in the same period.

Stock Advisor continues to prove itself to be an invaluable source for oriented growth investing recommendations. And each year they continues to add exponentionally more value through all the additional resources like daily market briefings, webcasts, market research and more frequenty updates and coverage on new and past recommendations.

For serious investors just getting started or those with years and decades of experience we believe Stock Advisor is a great investing companion well worth the $99/year (for new members).

Additionally the Motley Fool has a similar service called Rule Breakers which in many categories has out-performed Stock Advisor. You can see our yearly reviews of that service here.

We actually advise people to try both services together as they are very complimentary to each other and provide 2x the stock recommendations and they come with a 30 day risk free period.

Bundle Offer: Stock Advisor + Rule Breakers. 1 Year for $199

Quotes of the Day:

  • "Buy when everyone else is selling and hold when everyone else is buying. This is not merely a catchy slogan. It is the very essence of successful investments". - J. Paul Getty
  • "Financial peace isn't the acquisition of stuff. It's learning to live on less than you make, so you can give money back and have money to invest. You can't win until you do this." – Dave Ramsey
  • "Even a mistake may turn out to be the one thing necessary to a worthwhile achievement". - Henry Ford
  • “Though tempting, trying to time the market is a loser’s game. $10,000 continuously invested in the market over the past 20 years grew to more than $48,000. If you missed just the best 30 days, your investment was reduced to $9,900.1” - Christopher Davis
  • "To be a successful business owner and investor, you have to be emotionally neutral to winning and losing. Winning and losing are just part of the game". - Rich Dad
  • "I have found that when the market’s going down and you buy funds wisely, at some point in the future, you will be happy. You won’t get there by reading. Now is the time to buy". - Peter Lynch
  • "It's not how much money you make, but how much money you keep, how hard it works for you, and how many generations you keep it for." – Robert Kiyosaki